Weather Alerts For Thendara, NY

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over New York into southern Vermont with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the primary threats. Large to very large hail is possible with stronger storms over the northern half of Arkansas. Northeast southward into the central Appalachians and Cumberland Plateau Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the mid/upper MS Valley moving east towards the Northeast. A belt of strong west-southwesterly 500-mb flow (50-65 kt) will overspread much of the Northeast today in conjunction with the eastward-migrating shortwave trough. Visible-satellite imagery shows scattered to broken cloud cover to the south of a west-east oriented frontal zone extending east from a surface low analyzed over Lake Huron. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (surface dewpoints in the 56-62 deg F range) will result in weak to locally moderate buoyancy by midday into the mid afternoon (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching disturbance and convergence in the vicinity of the frontal zone will lead to scattered storm development this afternoon. Ample mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization, including the possibility for a few supercells and an organized band of storms. A risk for large hail and a tornado could accompany the more intense cells, whereas the wind risk will tend to focus with linear structures that evolve. An isolated threat for wind damage and perhaps hail will extend southward into PA/WV and the Cumberland Plateau, where a few stronger storms may yield those hazards. Mid South Satellite imagery shows the trailing portion of the upper shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes is moving east across OK this morning. This upper feature and associated mid-level cold pocket (-16 to -18 deg C at 500 mb) will move across the MO Ozarks and AR this afternoon. A reservoir of lower 60s deg F surface dewpoints and strong heating in wake of early day showers and isolated thunderstorms will favor robust CAPE profiles and elongated mid to upper portions of the hodograph. Latest guidance shows several cells developing within a weakly capped airmass by mid afternoon. The stronger storms will likely become supercells yielding a risk for large to very large hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Modest low-level flow will tend to limit low-level mesocyclone intensity and the lessen the overall tornado risk. A couple of smaller clusters may evolve during the early evening with an isolated wind threat potentially ensuing before this activity weakens by mid evening. Edwards Plateau into the TX Big Country and western north TX Moderate to strong potential instability is forecast to develop beneath steep lapse rates, along and east of a dryline. Although neutral to weak shortwave ridging is expected today, some of the latest model guidance shows isolated to widely scattered storm development by late afternoon on the northwestern rim of richer low-level moisture arcing from the Edwards Plateau into western north TX. Strong heating will likely erode appreciable remaining convective inhibition by 20-22 UTC. Strong west-southwesterly 100-kt 200-mb flow will elongate hodographs amidst a moderately buoyant airmass. Widely spaced/isolated supercells will mainly yield a large hail threat late this afternoon into the early evening.